UFC 86 Quinton Rampage Jackson vs Forrest Griffin quick picks

by mmaninja 7/5/2008 8:31:00 PM

This is going to be a great event with an excellent main event in Rampage vs Forrest and some great undercard fights. Quick picks is all I have time for these days so here they are.

Corey Hill Vs. Justin Buchholz - picking Corey Hill to win by height and ferocity.

Melvin Guillard Vs. Dennis Siver - Guillard is like a mini Randleman in a sense that he has better physical tools than most fighters but lack other important qualities like hard work and mental aspects of the fight game. On talent alone and lots of trashtalk mixed in with some substance abuse in the last year he only managed two very embarassing losses to Stevenson and Clementi. It seems to me he's on his last chance to stay in UFC and this fight with Siver is make it or break it. Siver has good striking credentials and has decent ground game, at least defensively. Siver's loss to Gray Maynard only showed his toughness and ability to stay in the fight when the going gets tough. Picking Siver because he is a serious fighter unlike the underachiving Guilldard.

Jorge Gurgel Vs. Cole Miller - hmm.. I could be entertaining for a little bit, but neither are impressive fighters. Miller should be able to land a tonn on Gurgel's face early on given his reach advantage and hopefully finish it there. There is a chance that Gurgel could smarten up for this fight and try doing the ground game as soon as can, but I think Cole's been training with Marcus Aurelius for this fight at American Top Team and his ground game should be as tight as ever. Picking Cole by Gurgel's inability to do anything serious.

Gabriel Gonzaga Vs. Justin McCully - Gonzaga was on top of the world after KOing Mirco CroCop and should not have had much shame inlosing to Randy Couture. But then fell apart in his cowardly loss to Fabricio Werdum. He definitely took a giant step back as a fighter that night. So hopefully he got some type of help with the mental aspects of the game which nowadays is becoming a necessity for many top fighters, see Chuck Liddell's use of Tony Robinson. Zuffa is throwing Gonzaga a bone here and having him face a scrub really, Tito "The embarrased" Ortiz's training parner Justin McCully. Should be an easy win for Gonzaga by whatever he wants, picking him by a head kick probably.

Tyson Griffin Vs. Marcus Aurelio - Clay Guida vs Marcus Aurelio should have been a barn burner too, but Marcus supposedly got the "UFC debut jitters" and Clay shaked his long hair enough for a split decision. I believe in Tyson Griffin to not be too scared of Aurelio and really push the action. But I think Aurelio got past the jitters and being more comfortable being in UFC should be able to at least decision Griffin, if not submit him. Picking Aurelio

Josh Koscheck Vs. Chris Lytle - this one is a tough one for me to pick because Lytle has fought some tough competition and even responded to recent critisims of being to timid with being more agressive. Koscheck will be definitely stronger of the two and I hope he'll not be smart and stand with Lytle. Picking Lytle by TKO of some type

Joe Stevenson Vs. Gleison Tibau - Stevenson will most likely come back strong from his bloody affair with BJ Penn and show off his great ground game coupled with constantly pushing the action. Picking Stevenson by decision

Patrick Cote Vs. Ricardo Almeida - I really like Cote and glad he has a 3 fight winning streak with some cool knockouts in his last two fights, but he has very little chance against Almeida. Many years ago, Renzo Gracie's top dog Almeida had a rough run in UFC, then he went to beat up a bunch of tough guys in the longest running Japanese promotion, Pancrase, including Nathan Marquardt and then decided to take an unexpected break to concentrate on the art of jiu-jitsu and teaching. Well, not that UFC is out in the open and is very popular I guess he got another itch to fight and make some serious money this time. His comeback fight in UFC was quick and impressive. Picking Almeida to make a statement and get a title shot at Anderson Silva, though I don't he's ready for that one just yet.

Quinton Jackson Vs. Forrest Griffin - I have lots of emotions about this one. I've been following Rampage since his days in KOTC and Pride, UFC should man up and release Rampage's greatest Prefight Interviews DVD cause there is some funny stuff there. He did pretty good for himself since his entrance to UFC and if Chuck's KO could be argued as a fluke, he did beat Dan Henderson handily. Forrest beat Mauricio Shogun in his last fight which was awesome. I think everyone was rooting for him and he pulled it off smashingly. That night he certainly could hold his own and push for a decisive win. So Forest beat Shogun, Shogun beat Rampage, so....blah blah blah. In reality Rampage wasn't well when he fought Shogun, Shogun wasn't well when he fought Forrest. Rampage has loads more experience of facing top notch competition than Forrest and it will show tonight. I have a feeling this will be some what similar to Wanderlei Silva showing everyone Keith Jardine isn't quite there yet and Rampage will do the same with Forrest. Picking Rampage

Now go order it ......it starts in 30 mins!

UFC Ultimate Fight Night 12 Results - Mike Swick, Patrick Cote, Thiago Tavares, Kurt Pellegrino win their televised fights

by mmaninja 1/23/2008 9:31:00 PM

This UFC Ultimate Fight Night overall didn't stack up to the last few UFC events as far as exciting fighting goes,not even last few Ultimate Fight Night events.  The main event really put a damper on otherwise an OK show with several decent fights and fighters really trying to put a show for the fans.

I already covered Nick Diaz's exciting win over Alving Robinson and have to add that while size difference certainly gave Diaz an advantage, he showed he has skills to put away a decent fighter and will prove to be a threat to higher level 155'ers after he gets past Manvel Gamburyan.  I picked this fight wrong.

UFC Thiago Tavares vs Omigawa
Thiago Tavares vs Michihiro Omigawa.  While myself and just about everybody in MMA media picked Tavares to easily win, Japanese judoka Omigawa, who comes from Yoshida's camp, gave Tavares a really hard time by stopping numerous takedown attempts, getting up from being taken down and escaping the backmount in the first round. In the second Tavares, and hopefully his corner as well, picked up on the fact the he has, in fact, a somewhat effective stand up game and started utilizing it. Omigawa, like many judokas transitioning to MMA, was durable, could take a lot of punishment, was in great shape but lacked the tools to go onto offensive except a seldom punch/elbow from the top. Omigawa did turn it up and decided to take the fight to the ground himself, but it was too late. Unfortunately, for Omigawa, the decision wasn't based on how good you can escape out of bad positions.  Tavares controlled the pace of most of the fight and was awarded a deserved unanimous decision.

Tavares, to everyone's surprise, encounted a very resilient judo ground fighter that frustrated him by getting out of everything Tavares threw at him. But Tavares stuck with it and controlled the fight. He has stamina, excellent ground game and improving striking to jump back into the mix with the likes of Guida, Griffin, Pellegrino and Stevenson.

Omigawa was impressive in his ability to nullify one of the best ground games out there, but needs more tools and aggressiveness to try to do damage to his opponents. I'd like to see him back for another go if he improves his attacks.

UFC Kurt Pellegrino vs Alberto Crane kick
UFC Kurt Pellegrino vs Alberto Crane
Alberto Crane Vs. Kurt Pellegrino. I picked Pellegrino to win this fight because of his awesome showing against Joe Stevenson and because of Alberto Crane's poor showing against Roger Huerta. Crane almost ruined my winning pick by landing a nice shin kick right on Pellegrino's chin and dropping him first thing in the fight. Pellegrino showed a great recovery ability and was able to escape several submission attempts from Crane who was attacking non stop hoping to catch the staggered Pellegrino. After Pellegrino disengaged from the ground, it became very clear that his stand up was superior to Crane's. He began to stalk Crane and landing shots on his face. In the end Pellegrino landed a hard shot on Crane from standing position while Crane was on the bottom. The shot landed on his eye, he closed his eyes and covered up with his hands. Herb Dean jumped in to stop the fight. Crane complained a bit about an early stoppage, but it would not have changed the outcome, in my opinion, as Pellegrino was getting more aggresive and landing more and more shots with Crane not offering much in return.

Kurt Pellegrino is a tough fighter who showed tonight he could take a hard shot to the chin and recover quickly. May be he could face Tavares next?

Alberto Crane, unfortunately, while having world class jiu-jitsu ground game, still has a sub par standup and poor takedown abilities and not much hope for improvement. If he wants to continue fight, it should probably be in smaller shows like WEC and at a lower weight - 145lb.

Patrick Cote Vs. Drew McFedries. I picked Cote to win this fight and Cote really delivered. He didn't back down from the threat of possibly being caught with a KO punch from McFedries and pressed forward throwing kicks and combinations. McFedries looked too confident in his power and was too relaxed, which led him to let Cote get a rhythm going. McFedries cought Cote twice, but Cote, apparently, can take a hard punch. After the second time Cote got hit, he answered with a right hand/uppercut and a left hook to really hurt McFedries. To my surprise, especially because he is coming from Miletich camp, McFedries just put up his hands and dropped to the floor waiting for the referee to step in. He didn't event try to go for a takedown to try to recover there. Something didn't look right about that, especially him smiling right after the stop. Hope it's not a sign of lack of heart.

UFC Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedries
Cote is now on a 3 win streak and has been able to put his great tools, training with St. Pierre and a will to win together into a good combination. Can't wait to see him fight again, on the Montreal UFC card? I'm sure he would like that.  Also, just like his very successful training partner Georges St. Pierre, Cote was extremely respectful toward his opponent and was good on the mic.

But if Alessio Sakara (why is he still in UFC?!) keeps getting fights on ZERO merit and crappy ability, Drew McFedries should definately get another few fights because he has awesome power and comes from a good camp. Hopefully he can put his personal problems past him and come back better.

Mike Swick Vs. Josh Burkman. I picked Mike Swick to win this fight. He won the fight...while fighting probably one of the more disappointing "main events" of the numerous Ultimate Fight Nights.  I didn't write it here, but on some forums I predicted that both of these guys will not do good under pressure of being in the main event and unfortunately I was right. Swick's claim that one of the reason he was moving down to 170 was to bring an exciting striking style to 170 division fell flat on it's face.

Both Swick and Burkman were afraid of each other and engaged very little standing up, barring Burkman's 360 spinning round house kick attempt (big up on that, it looked cool, ala Shogun's attempt on Rampage) and Swick's occasional high kicks. Most of the fight was spend in viciously boring cycle of Burkman charging Swick to the fence, trying for a take down and Swick defending it every single time, rinse and repeat.

I can kind of understand Burkman's endless mindless unsuccessful attempts at the same damn takedown after same damn takedown, he's part of Team Punishment, right? They would rot and fester any fighter's creativity there and suppliment that with crappy cornermen advice. Burkman, you need to get out of there asap, go to Xtreme Couture Gym, you'll be inspired and get your warrior spirit and fight smarts back.

UFC Mike Swick vs Josh Burkman
Swick gave excuses about being worried to much about same damn takedown he already defended 10+ times and not pushing with the striking because of that. He was just not ready for being a main event and a possiblity of losing, so he was too scared to make something happen with his striking. Too bad. UFC keeps pushing these The Ultimate Fighter TV Show fighters right into the deep waters. Both of the guys are good fighters and should really rethink this fight, talk to Tony Robbins and get back into it like Chuck Liddell did.

So, on the televised fights only, based on my picks from right before the event, I went 3-1. Not bad. I'll report later on how I did with the untelevised fights and what I thought about them as soon as I watch them.

MMA Ninja's UFC Ultimate Fight Night Mike Swick vs Josh Burkman Patrick Cote vs Drew McFedries

by mmaninja 1/23/2008 8:31:00 PM

Here I am again, posting picks minutes before the event.

Mike Swick Vs. Josh Burkman: picking Mike Swick because even if they both slug it out in the first, he's has some stamina to go on, unlike Burkman.

Patrick Cote Vs. Drew McFedries: I know McFedries punches like a mule, but I think Cote will pull this through by working on the fence and taking this into round 2 or 3.

Alvin Robinson Vs. Nate Diaz: I'll go for the underdog here and think Robinson will outwork Diaz.

Michihiro Omigawa Vs. Thiago Tavares:  Thiago Tavares has a very smooth ground game and some nice flying knees to go with that. This one will be over quick I'm thinking.

Alberto Crane Vs. Kurt Pellegrino: Alberto Crane may be an amazing BJJ guy, but getting punched while he's working his ground game hasn't gone well for him recently. Pellegrino is good enough on the ground to fend Crane off while repeatedly punching him. Whoever gases first will lose this one. I'm thinking Crane will gas first, so Pellegrino is my pick.

Dennis Siver Vs. Gray Maynard: Gray Maynard should have picked up a tonn of good stuff at Xtreme Couture's to beat just about anybody, including Siver tonight.

Jeremy Stephens Vs. Cole Miller: Jeremy Stephens faced tougher competition and his experience should help him through this fight with Miller. Though Miller's been training with American Top Team, another kickass camp in US. Stephens beat Saraiva fromt he same camp though... Ya, I'm sure it'll be Stephens.

Joe Veres Vs. Corey Hill: A foot difference in height should handily help Corey Hill pick up a win over Veres

Justin Buchholz Vs. Matt Wiman: Wiman's lack of stricking will cost him in this one, picking Buchholz

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